WHY MUST LANIER SUFFER SO MUCH?
(Ron Seder 4/20/08)

Here we are ten days before the month of May in 2008 and Lake Lanier is still 13 feet below its full pool level.  Lake Lanier residents and recreation dependent businesses are paying the price.  Recreation activity is limited, property values continue to plummet, and business revenues, profits and employment are in decline.  Lake Lanier, and those whose livelihood and quality of life rely on it, are suffering huge negative consequences from low lake levels.

Downstream there is an abundance of water in the rivers and reservoirs.  West Point Lake and Lake George are two feet above their seasonal full pool levels, and the Apalachicola River has been flowing with plentiful water since January.

Georgia and the Corps of Engineers (Corps) have made and proposed Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) operation changes that have a small impact on Apalachicola River flows, but those proposals are always met with strong resistance from Florida, citing the supposed runaway growth and resultant water use increases in Metropolitan Atlanta (Atlanta) as causing huge negative consequences for Florida.

The claims of Atlanta water use causing a significant Florida problem are just ridiculous.  On average, Atlanta water consumption amounts to less than two percent of the Apalachicola River flow, hardly a significant difference.  Even in times of drought Atlanta water consumption amounts to less than 10 percent of the Apalachicola river flow.

How did we get to the situation in which we now find ourselves?  The cause has been a drought and mismanagement of the ACF river system.  Nature has supplied too little water to enter Lanier, and the Corps has released too much water from Lanier.  We humans have little control over what nature provides, but we do have a lot of control over Lanier water releases.

The Corps, disproportionately responding to unfair downstream demands, and through its own mistakes, released too much water from Lake Lanier.  A Corps error in 2006 caused 22 Billion gallons of water (almost 2 feet of lake level) to be mistakenly released.  And, to satisfy excessive downstream demands, Lake Lanier was lowered from a level of 1068.5 in May of 2007 to a record low level of 1050.8 in December.

Meanwhile, Apalachicola River flows were being held unreasonably high for some threatened and endangered species without knowing how much flow is required for the survival of the species.  What happened to these species before the dams were built on the Chattahoochee River? Without the dams the natural flows in 2007 would have dropped far below the minimum provided by the Corps’ control of the ACF river system, so what would real nature have done to the species?

Also, without science to back it up, Florida demands that large quantities of ACF water be released into the Gulf of Mexico for its oyster industry.

To the contrary, I think the facts (e.g. the current continuing record breaking low Lake Lanier levels) and resultant losses clearly demonstrate that more water should be stored in Lake Lanier during times of plentiful rain, to be released more slowly during other times.

Lanier is still almost 5 feet lower than ever before experienced at this time of the year.  The reason for Lanier remaining low, while downstream the ACF is experiencing abundance, is that the lake is a very large for the size of the watershed draining into it.  Downstream reservoirs have much less capacity and are fed by much larger watersheds.  So, when it rains there are times when there is an abundance of water downstream while Lanier struggles to add just a few feet to its level.

Lanier should be the storage of last resort, with as much water as possible saved to protect against the worst ACF droughts, but that is not the case.  Florida and Alabama’s demands for larger river flows carry more weight with the Corps than Atlanta and the Lanier community’s pleadings for wiser action.

The outlook for Lanier for the remainder of the year is terrible.  A continued period of low rainfall is forecast.  Georgia and the Corps have proposed changes in ACF management, which result in only miniscule improvements in Lake Lanier’s lowest level.  Chances are that Lanier will go no higher than 1060 (11 feet below the full summer pool level of 1071) this year before the summer season sets in and the lake is once again lowered.  Down to what level?  We don’t know.  Last year at this time Lake Lanier’s level was 1068.5 and it went down to 1050.8 in December.

The lake is now at 1057.5 and if we have the lake level drop this year as was experienced last year between April 20 and December (17.7 feet) we could expect the lake to be at a level of 1039.8 by the end of the year.  Hopefully the Corps will manage the ACF system this year to avoid that extreme, but how low will the lake really go?  It could certainly go much lower than the record low achieved last December.

Significant changes in the Corps’ management of the ACF are required to avoid even worse Lake Lanier recreation and Atlanta water supply consequences this year.  So far, there is no hint that significant changes are being considered.

I think the Lake Lanier community needs to be much more aggressive in advocating significant ACF operation changes to help Lake Lanier better satisfy legitimate and most important needs.

Lake Lanier results from a Corps 4/15/08 Proposal

Below is a Corps chart showing what would have been Lanier’s level in 2007/8 if the Corps proposed ACF operations change had been in effect.  The lake level would have been lower during the summer months and about one foot higher than the lowest level ever achieved in December.

Green is actual observed Lake Lanier level
Red is level if the proposal had been in effect during the same time period

Support the Reduced River Flow Proposal
(Ron Seder 2/26/08)

On February 11, 2008 the Georgia Environmental Division (EPD) requested that the Corps of Engineers (COE) reduce the minimum Chattahoochee River flow requirements at Peachtree Creek to save more water in Lake Lanier.  The Georgia EPD submission to the COE is on the web at http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/pd/notices/GA-EPDtoColByronJorns-2-11-08.pdf. 

The COE requested comments on the proposal, which can be submitted on the web at http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/pd/buforddamcf.asp. 

The website leading to the above two websites is found at http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/. 

Following is my response to the COE request for comments.

February 26, 2008

I am writing to support the GA-EPD Request (11 Feb 2008) to reduce the minimum flows at USGS 02336000 (Peachtree Creek Gauge) from 750 cubic feet per second (cfs) to 550 cfs.  The proposal shows very little impact downstream, while improving Lake Lanier’s level by more than one foot if hydrology conditions of the year 2000 are duplicated, which still allows Lanier to rise no higher than ten feet below the full pool level.

Lanier is now still below the low level (1055.61) of the 2000 drought, causing a destructive impact on all who use, enjoy and rely on Lanier for financial asset value and income.  If the Lake Lanier watershed continues to experience low rainfall conditions, as some are forecasting, recreation will be devastated during the prime season causing severe hardship to many.

I believe the proposal does not go far enough to give Lanier proper consideration.  I think there should also be a concentration on Buford Dam releases, which have been running around 600 cfs for the past few days.  There are not many days when the flow at the Peachtree Creek Gauge is at the minimum 750 cfs because with Buford Dam releases at 600 cfs there is enough runoff into the Chattahoochee between Buford Dam and the Peachtree Creek Gauge to raise the flows well above the 750 cfs.

Therefore, there should be a further reduction of releases at Buford Dam when the flows at the Peachtree Creek Gauge are well above the established minimum.  Currently there is no need to augment downstream flows.  West Point Lake is at 1031.69, about three feet above its seasonal full pool.  Lake George is at 189.01, a foot above its seasonal full pool.  The Apalachicola River flow at USGS 02358000 (Chattahoochee, Florida) is 52,000 cfs, (47,250 cfs above its minimum flow).

As can be seen from the facts, everything below Buford Dam on the ACF is having great success while Lake Lanier is still almost seventeen feet below the seasonal full pool level.  Lake Lanier suffers most because it has a small watershed for the size of the lake.  So, for a given amount of rain across the entire ACF watershed, Lanier recovers very slowly while the downstream reservoirs and rivers experience abundance from their relatively larger watersheds.

Perhaps a better comparison would be between Lake Lanier and Lake Allatoona (on the ACT) geographically close to each other.  For approximately the same rainfall the Lake Allatoona level rises much more than Lake Lanier.  Lake Allatoona is now at a level of 830.97, one foot above its seasonal full pool level, and twelve feet above its lowest level during the past five months.  Lanier is at 1053.34, almost seventeen feet below its seasonal full pool, and only two and one half feet above its lowest level during the past five months. Why?  Allatoona is about one third the size of Lanier while having a similar size watershed.  Therefore, the same watershed runoff for both lakes has a much more dramatic positive impact on Lake Allatoona levels.

In summary, I support the Peachtree Gauge minimum 550 cfs flow, but urge more action in reducing Buford Dam releases to lessen the negative impact on Lake Lanier levels.  Without more action to improve Lake Lanier it will suffer a hugely disproportional drought penalty than other ACF locals.

Ronald Seder

ronseder@mindspring.com

Email to Governor Sonny Perdue

November 13, 2007 

Dear Governor Perdue, 

As means of showing some of my credentials, I would like to tell you first off why the information I offer here is based on Lake Lanier knowledge and experience.

I am a former Forsyth County Commissioner and Chairman or the Forsyth County Board of Commissioners.  I am a past Vice President and President of the Lake Lanier Association.  I have been working for the preservation of Lake Lanier for eighteen years.   I served on the Governor's Advisory Council for Tri-State Water Issues.  I was a member of the Lake Sidney Lanier Watershed Governance Council and the Lake Lanier Basin Advisory Council for the Metropolitan North Georgia Water Planning District.

Governor Perdue, I appreciate what you have done for Lake Lanier so far, but because of the way things are materializing I think a lot more is required.

I will not go into detail about the dreadful plight of Lake Lanier because I am sure you know that better than most.  You know Lake Lanier is in crisis mode.  Future water supplies are threatened and the Lake Lanier recreational economic contribution to Georgia is seriously diminished.  In one more week the lake level will be the lowest ever.

You have imposed a reduction in Georgia’s water supply consumption.  But I am sure you know that a reduction in consumption will offer almost no relief to the Lake Lanier situation because the savings is so small compared to the large minimum flows demanded for the Apalachicola River.

For example, for the past week the flow in the Apalachicola River has averaged 5,129 cfs.  That is 129 cfs more than the required minimum, which I assume is the Corps’ safety margin.  It is interesting to note that if metro Atlanta reduced its consumption by 20% that would change the requirement by less than 90 cfs.  In fact, all of metro Atlanta’s water supply consumption is less than 10% as large as the 5,000 cfs Apalachicola River required minimum flow.

I know when you met with the governors of Alabama and Florida, and the Secretary of the Interior a couple weeks ago in Washington, D.C., progress was made and an agreement was reached to reduce the minimum flows in the Apalachicola River by 800 cfs.  The Corps has sent that suggestion to the Fish and Wildlife Service and we are hoping to receive an agreement response from them this Thursday.

As a result of the agreements reached in Washington, including the promise of future Governor Meetings to try and settle the tri-states water issues, Georgia withdrew its preliminary injunction request in the Florida Federal Court.

Subsequently, Florida withdrew from the 800 cfs agreement reached in the Washington, D.C. meeting.

By the way, withdrawing from agreements reached among the three states is par for the course for Florida.  I remember two times during the tri-states negotiations when the three states reached a tentative agreement only to have Florida later back out.

Also, as you know, about the same time you asked the Corps to help the fast shrinking Lake Lanier, the Corps announced it would be releasing even greater amounts of water from the lake.

Those greater releases now make the 800 cfs Apalachicola River flow reduction seem puny.  The Lanier discharges during September and October averaged 1,716 cfs and 1,909 cfs respectively, which were very large compared to the average release of 890 cfs for the entire drought year of 2001.  But now, with the Corps’ increased releases during the past week (11/6 through 11/12) the average Lanier discharge was 2,985 cfs.  During that same one-week period Lake Lanier lowered another 1.28 feet, and that rate converts to a one-month lake lowering of 5.5 feet.  If all of the 800 cfs Apalachicola River reduction was realized in reduced Lanier discharges it would now amount to only a 27% reduction.  Applying that 27% discharge reduction to lake levels would mean a 4.0 feet monthly Lanier level reduction rather than 5.5 feet.

I don’t think we can take much comfort in the lake going down 4.0 feet per month.  We already have a recreational economic disaster, and we could soon be in a much more serious water supply situation.

Governor Perdue, if we do not have significant rain, we need much greater Lake Lanier discharge relief than 800 cfs.  I urge you to reinstate the preliminary injunction request in the Florida Court and push for immediate court action.

Sincerely,

Ronald Seder

6355 Barberry Hill Place
Gainesville, Georgia
Home phone 770-889-1088
Cell Phone 404-229-1088
ronseder@mindspring.com
www.ronseder.com

Copy:  Congressman Nathan Deal
            Congressman John Linder
            Senator Johnny Isakson
            Senator Saxby Chambliss 

Water Supply is not the Problem
(Ron Seder 11/10/07) 

For the past week (11/3 through 11/9) the Corps has released water to produce an Apalachicola River flow of 5,121 cfs, 121 cfs (78 mgd) above the required 5,000 cfs minimum.  My guess is that the Corps treats this as a safety margin to assure at least 5,000 cfs.  So, in a way it is spillage or water lost in the rounding.  After all, that 121 cfs is only 2.4% greater than 5,000 cfs. 

Metro Atlanta continues to be accused of being the reason for the current low level of Lake Lanier and the reason for the low flows in the Apalachicola River.  However, if metro Atlanta water supplies conserved 20% of their water consumption the savings would be less than 60 mgd.  So, more is being lost in spillage to the Apalachicola River than metro Atlanta could save by reducing its consumption 20%.

If all of metro Atlanta's water supply withdrawals from the Chattahoochee River system were completely discontinued it would amount to a savings less than 10% as large as the 5,000 cfs required minimum Apalachicola River flow.  If metro Atlanta did not exist the Apalachicola River would still be experiencing very low flows now, and if we reverted totally back to original nature (without man made reservoirs) the flows in the Apalachicola River would now be about one half the 5,000 cfs minimum being demanded. 

Metro Atlanta water supplies are not the problem, and if we don't get rain and/or reduced flows in the Apalachicola River there is no way to improve the Lake Lanier crisis, it will just get worse.

METROPOLITAN ATLANTA CANNOT CONSERVE ITS WAY 
OUT OF THE CURRENT WATER CRISIS
(Ron Seder 10/24/07) 

Metro Atlanta cannot conserve its way out of the pending Lake Lanier disaster!!  Metro Atlanta could not have conserved its way out of the current Lake Lanier crisis if it had reduced its water consumption 20% for the past two years!! 

Reducing the flow in the Apalachicola River by 3,000 cfs (1,935 million gallons per day) for one month would save as much water as metro Atlanta reducing its water consumption by 20% for 32 months. 

I think we all have to be concerned about threatened and endangered species, but we have to keep that concern in balance with the needs of man.  The current minimum flows established for the Apalachicola River were not based on science of what minimum flows are required to avoid elimination of the threatened and endangered species, but rather more based on what was last year judged by the Corps, with Fish and Wildlife Service agreement, to be flows they would live with at that time. 

Lake Lanier is down and going down a lot faster than it did in past droughts because the Corps is releasing a lot more water from Buford Dam than was released during past droughts.  The large releases are said to be mainly for threatened and endangered species in the Apalachicola River. 

When significant rains return to the Lake Lanier watershed the problem will be eased, but a dry winter is being forecast.  Until the abundant rains return we must focus on reducing the huge Buford Dam releases.

The 2007 Lake Lanier Crisis
(9/29/07)
 

Lake Lanier is facing a crisis.  The Corps of Engineers has released water so fast from Lake Lanier during the current drought that the lake is already down to the 1059 ft-msl level, 12 feet below full pool.  The Corps of Engineers this week is predicting that the lake will be another almost 6 feet down to 1053.4 by October 26, with the Corps stated possibility of the lake eventually going down to 1040 after that. That is 13 feet lower than ever experienced on Lake Lanier, which of course would destroy Lake Lanier recreation and property values as we have known them.

 

We are told these huge drought Lake Lanier releases are being done to support three threatened or endangered species in the Apalachicola River, which may or may not be necessary.  The species are a few sturgeon, the purple bankclimber mussel and the fat threeridge mussel.

 

It does not make sense to allow the destruction of Lake Lanier for the reasons above. 

 

Following are excerpts from an Atlanta Journal-Constitution article:

 

SINKING TO A 50-YEAR LOW? Drought a drain on Lanier

 

In the best-case scenario, the lake — metro Atlanta's main water source — will fall another 9 feet, setting a new record low at 20 feet below its full level. At that point, every public boat ramp and dock, and nearly every private dock, will be high and dry.

In the worst case, the lake will drop another 20 feet, leaving just 4 feet of water storage and threatening the region's water supply. Whether metro Atlanta could continue drawing water out of the lake and the Chattahoochee River it feeds is anybody's guess right now.

And, following is another paragraph from the same article:

The reasons for the expected drop is twofold: predictions of a dry, warm winter that would extend a drought now in its second year; and the Corps' obligation to send enough water to Florida to protect two rare and endangered freshwater mussel species.

The full article can be seen at http://www.ajc.com:80/search/content/drought0921.html.

Yes, we are in a drought, but the Corps is releasing 2 to 3 times more water now than during past droughts.  Those releases are the reason the lake is heading for the disaster that did not occur during past droughts.

The lowest Lake Lanier level since the lake was first filled was 1052.66 on December 23, 1981.  Apparently the Corps of Engineers learned from the experiences with those low lake levels and has not allowed the lake to go that low in subsequent droughts until this year.

Lake Lanier is facing disaster.

All who would like to preserve Lake Lanier should contact their elected officials and ask for action.